History has a habit of repeating itself. Events have happened in different eras and centuries, but the underlying concept remains more or less same. We need a macroscopic view to watch the sequence of historical underpinning to understand the flow of events with logical reasoning. In this blog I would constrain my self up to the natural home of Indian maritime, sometimes called as India's backyard, "Indian Ocean".
Indian Ocean and Indian History are intermingled in a way just like the dissolved salt in the water of Indian ocean. It was Indiana plate that collided with Eurasian plate giving rise to the mighty Himalayas/Hindu Kush in North, Sulaiman ranges in west and Poorvanchal in East. The same ocean provided way for trade between Indus valley people and Mesopotamia civilization. It also become gateway for Buddhism that enlightened Eastern and South Eastern Asia for long time (Until Islam arrived from Arabia in Indonesia and Malaysia etc). And many countries of Indo china are still Buddhist dominance.
The Indian ocean was not a one way transit from India to others. But it was a 2 way process in which Indians did get influenced and impressed by different cultures. Christianity came to India first through sea route. The advent of Islam in south India was also through Indian ocean.
The old spice route, the maritime silk route, the trade winds of Indian ocean that gave the name of "Mausam" to Indian Monsoon by Arabian traders. Chola's did try to rule/influence south eastern countries through Navy. It was weak Navy of Mughals that detered them to fight against English in Indian Ocean.
History is full of examples in which Indian ocean has played a central role in deciding India's cultural, economical, religious and regional dominance and character.
The current position of Indian ocean is very much strategic and has many players involved with many variables. Each with their own concern, sometimes legitimate and sometimes superficial. Although there are many countries like Bangladesh, Srilanka, Maldives, India, Iran, Pakistan, Mauritius, Seychelles, Oman etc and if we include Indian ocean rim then South Africa, Malayasia, Indonesia and Australia also come into the play. Given the population, economic might, Naval supremacy, Historical importance and most importantly Strategic location makes India most important in this geography.
Its India's responsibility to maintain peace, security, security and protection of small islands and if possible joint operations against Pirates/ terrorists. India's own interest are linked to this blue water more than anyone else. And its a gate way for 1.25 billion Indian who depend on Indian Ocean for fisheries/food, energies/petroleum, minerals and trade & transport. And certainly Indian navy is playing its part that is why there is peace in waters.
But what if a second player, much bigger in size i.e. human resource, economy and one of the fastest rising military power, having considerable interests in the region suddenly starts expansionary diplomacy in the Indian Ocean?
Yes you are right its China. For those who do not know, let me make it clear that more than 80% of China's energy requirement passes through Indian ocean. And there are two choke points strait of Hormuz and strait of Malacca. More than 70% of China trading good passes through it. China has a export based economy and ocean is life line for it. Any blockade to strait of Malacca (which is mostly dominated by US Navy) natural or man made can have serious implications on China's long dream of being world's great power!
After getting sufficient foothold in West Pacific region its turning toward Indian Ocean and failed to get hold in strait of Malacca (controlled by tripartite of Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia and under influence of US) now the red dragon is turning toward small Asian countries. On the name of commercial and economic interest the main focus of China is to get considerable military presence in Indian ocean to solve dual purposes. One is to safeguard its maritime security and second the long dream of great power can be visualized by having presence in every important part of the world.
But Indian ocean is not a natural backyard of China. It might have legitimate interests but it also have a long history of expansionism. Just after its independence it annexed Tibet forcefully and Dalai Lama's life is still in danger. It annexed considerable part of Jammu and Kashmir (Aksai chin and Aghil hills of Kashmiris gifted to China by Pakistan from PoK). China claims on Arunachal Pradesh. China has disputes with Japan and South Korea for a group of Islands (senkaku) mainly due to Under water resources in East China sea. China also has disputes with Vietnam in south China sea over petroleum reserves.
The China's rise is convinced peaceful only by Chinese. Rest other countries immediate or extended are either anxious or dismayed by China. Of course there are exceptions like Pakistan and North Korea for obvious reason. Pakistan already gifted its Gwadar port, Aghil Hills and now the ongoing Pak-China economic corridor. So in one line China need not to annex anything from China. Rather Pakistan will gift all its resources automatically.
North Korea is a complicated case. Enemity with South Korea, Japan, US and presence of communist government makes China and N. Korea natural allies. Neither has N. Korean any option nor China has any ally in that region.
Last year China's Nuclear submarines were found near to Colombo (not more than 200 nautical miles from India). Its was criticized world wide and it dragged India into Naval competition automatically. It was this concern that made Indians to put pressure on Maldives and Srilanka to dismiss their deal of sea port development with China. Indian PM's visit to Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka to reinforce Indian dominance and commitment toward smaller island nation in Indian backyard. While Iran and Oman are already on Indian side and Bangladesh is in the process.
India is following the strategy of Iron curtain against China's string of pearls and it has lead to a naval competition among the two rising a billion plus old great civilizations. And here is the lesson from History. Arm such race always lead to destruction of one another. India and China should learn from past and rather than influencing smaller nations they should come on diplomatic table directly. Signing Sino-Indian maritime pact for Indian Ocean security will be the best and long term solution. The more early they realize the better blue water will be!
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